This is a multi part posts about business challenges and planning for when the populace feels safe to resume normal activities.
Countries aggressively vaccinates
The Covid-19 Pandemic will eventually pass. Most countries in the world will achieve herd immunity either through combinational vaccinations or naturally acquired immunity.
As of 10th August, 2021, there are a few vaccines that are authorized for Emergency Use from the United States, United Kingdom, China and Russia.
World Health Organization indicates that there are currently 52 vaccines in human trials(1) against the novel coronavirus.
Various vaccine types vaccine types like injectables, mucosal (nasal spray or oral) (2) and pill forms is already or will be available in the very near future.
This allows different combinational strategy of long term and localized immunity, ease of distribution and acceptance by the public.
Vaccines are effective
UK and Israel have shown that the vaccine is effective in reducing the severe disease from the Corona v , even against the more infectious Delta variant. (2). There are breakthrough infections. However, the new nasal or oral type vaccines that will is in the pipeline will help to reduce these in the future.
It is likely that we shall have sporadic and regional infections from different variants in the future. We have the know-how, process and technologies to deal with it effectively.
Restrictions ease as infections decline
As the infections rate declined in the US, States started to ease restrictions on businesses. Americans came out to enjoy all the wonderful services that they missed.
Various European countries like UK, Spain, have opened up their economy as infections are down.
The Global Economy is roaring back.
Businesses caught off guard by the surge in demand, supply chain, information technology and human resources issues.
Airlines, Transportation, Car Manufacturers, Housing and Retail industries were caught off guard by the surge in economic activities.
Car manufacturers were anticipating low growth were surprised by a robust demand for new and used cars. At the start of the pandemic, the reduced their order of chips that were essential in producing new cars or spare parts. The chip industry wound down the production. But as demand did not wane, they could not get the chip manufacturers to start back up the production lines because those lines have been repurposed to produce other chips. It will take months before production can be ramped back up.
Lumber prices skyrocketed a few months ago. The housing and renovation market caused a hike in demand for lumber. Saw mills were not able to keep up with demands as lockdowns and workers that were sick kept them away from work.
Labor shortage due to sick truck drivers contributed to a similar situation in the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Ships were not able to offload their cargo in a timely manner and caused a backlog of ships outside the port. On August 13, 2021, there were 125 ships either at berth or anchor in Los Angeles/Long Beach. (4) China has closed their 3rd largest port, Ningbo (5), for a week as they found a worker infected with Covid 19. The ability to turn around ships is causing a global containers shortage. With rising demand for transportation, this is spiking shipping rates.
Transportation costs has gone up significantly. Manufacturers and retailers must recalibrate their final costs.
Starbucks is warning that some menu items are not available because of shortages. They are not able to stock items like nondairy oat milk.
The airlines Industry was not prepared for the rush to travel. Airlines companies suffered minor to major disruptions. Thousands of flights were canceled and thousands of travelers were left stranded. This was caused by a multitude of problems – staffing shortages, poor weather and logistical errors.
The Great Resignation and Workforce Challenges
Four million people quit their jobs in April, 2021 alone. There are several reasons but the 3 main ones are:
1) Options – There are plenty of job options out there. With the improved economy, entry-level positions abound, from offices, warehouses, manufacturing, construction, delivery, retail, food.
2) People leaving their bosses.
3) People want to continue to work in a mixed environment of remote and on-site.
The food service industry has been especially hit hard and not able to attract workers despite bonuses and more wages.
In summary, we have examined
- Countries are vaccinating people as fast as they possibly can.
- As infections rate decline, the economy rebounds strongly
- Companies are face with hosts of issues – labor, supply chain, costs, IT systems
In the next post, we shall examine some of the mitigation opportunities.
- (1) The different types of COVID-19 vaccines
- (2) Nasal Vaccines for COVID-19
- The official UK government website for data and insights on coronavirus (COVID-19)
- U.S. Recovery Sustains Positive Momentum as Economy Reopens
- https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-08-global-eradication-covid-feasible-polio.html
- (4) California congestion nears new high, East Coast gridlock worsens
- (5) China port congestion worsens as Ningbo shuts for a week
- CNBC Spirit Airlines CEO It's been a challenging month
- https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-02-covid-vaccines-online.html
- https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/return-office-mandates-great-resignation-companies-employment-expert
- The Great Resignation